The cone describes uncertainty in the future path of the storm center. It is not a map of every place that may feel impacts.
What the cone shows
NHC builds the operational cone from recent errors in forecasts of the storm center. The cone widens with forecast time because track uncertainty grows. A line inside it is one forecast, not a guaranteed route.
What it does not show
The cone does not describe a storm’s size, the limits of damaging wind, rain, storm surge, or flooding. Dangerous conditions may occur outside it. Review the public advisory, local warnings, and hazard products together.
What changed in 2026
NHC is testing an experimental cone based on ellipses and a different uncertainty percentile. The experimental graphic is separate from the operational cone; check the label on the specific NHC graphic.
Frequently asked questions
Does the cone show where winds will reach?
No. It shows uncertainty around the projected center. Wind and rain often extend beyond the cone; check NHC hazard and local warning products.
Is a town outside the cone safe?
No. A town outside the cone may still have dangerous surf, rain, flooding or wind. Local forecasts and evacuation orders should guide decisions.
Is the 2026 experimental cone the official forecast?
NHC publishes an experimental graphic alongside its operational products. Read the label and explanation on the NHC page before comparing them.
Reviewed 2026-09-28. Independent guide; follow NHC and local authorities for safety decisions.